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Counting heads
(by Kara Krekeler - January 19, 2010)
In about two months, every residence in the U.S. will receive a form for the 2010 Census, and every person — man, woman, old, young, citizen or undocumented immigrant — will fill out that short survey and send it in.
At least that’s the hope of Dennis Johnson, regional director of the Census Bureau.
Until the counting officially begins in mid-March, Census workers across the country are enlisting politicians and community leaders to advocate participation in the decennial census, which helps determine everything from how many representatives a state will have in Congress to how billions of federal dollars will be distributed.
“We’re just trying to get across the importance of participating,” Johnson said, adding that “a small army” of local Census takers will be deployed in the beginning of May to visit the homes of those who didn’t return their forms by the deadline.
Getting an accurate count
By the end of the year, the Census Bureau will provide the population counts that will be used by the government to direct the distribution of more than $400 billion in funding for schools, highways, health care and economic development.
But the primary role of the Census is to ensure equal representation in Congress, as the 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are allocated based on population.
Since the 2000 Census, unofficial counts have shown that Missouri is on the verge of losing a seat in the House of Representatives. But as recently as December, an Associated Press article noted that the state has the potential to keep it, by a margin of between 5,000 and 14,000 people.
Mark Tranel, director of the University of Missouri–St. Louis’ Public Policy Research Center, said that most of the concern involved a higher degree of population growth in other states than in Missouri, and that only the final official count will show if Missouri will keep its ninth seat.
Even if the number of representatives doesn’t change, it’s possible that Missouri legislators could redraw congressional district lines to reflect changes in population centers. Locally, the St. Louis County may redraw its county council district lines, and the city of St. Louis and other municipalities may redistrict as well.
Tranel said that other potential outcomes of the 2010 Census may include the distribution of sales tax revenues in St. Louis County; some areas that have experienced a high rate of foreclosures may see less county funding because fewer people live there.
All of the potential changes boil down to an accurate count, however, and Johnson said he’s hoping that most people will fill out the forms without any prodding from door-to-door Census workers.
The form this year includes just 10 questions that cover the name, age, address and race of everyone who lives at a particular address. While the form does ask for a phone number — which Johnson said would be used only to follow up on unfinished or unreadable forms — it does not ask for a social security number, something Johnson said many people assume will be asked.
The Census Bureau’s biggest challenges this year “all refer back to a lack of understanding. A large number of individuals are new to the area and may not understand the process,” he said, noting that Census forms are confidential and that the information can’t be used for anything beyond the count.
While confusion over the Census is present everywhere, it’s particularly pronounced in the immigrant community, where problems are being caused by everything from language barriers to memories of dysfunctional censuses in other countries, said Kate Howell, community relations manager for the International Institute of St. Louis.
“There are lots of myths about illegal or undocumented immigrants, that this is a way for the government to find you,” Howell said. “There’s also a lot of fraud associated with the Census, so we’re trying to make sure everyone knows what the form looks like, what badges people will have if they come to your door.”
Howell said that the International Institute has created a Complete Count committee, which is currently working to mobilize ethnic leaders to help get the word out at places of worship, community centers, schools and wherever else members of their community gather. Once the forms begin arriving at homes, the International Institute will begin functioning as a resource for immigrants who may need help filling out their forms.
Johnson said that reaching out to minority and immigrant communities is important, particularly in light of the 2000 Census, later analysis of which showed a slight overall overcount in the St. Louis area. While problematic in and of itself, the overcount was particularly troubling because Census workers knew that some populations, including African Americans and Native Americans, were undercounted, Johnson said.
“We have to make sure we get accurate counts in all segments of the populations. There needs to be equal representation of all populations, not just the overall count,” Johnson said.
Based on the American Community Survey, a survey that gets more types of information — including education, income and poverty levels — through a sample population each year, Johnson said he believes the 2010 Census will show an increase in diversity in the metro area, with higher percentages of the population from Bosnia and Asian countries.
“I think that will be the story of the St. Louis area: increased diversification. That’s what I anticipate, and I think the numbers will back that up,” Johnson said.
Howell, however, thought that any change in the international population would be minor, despite the fact that it has changed quite a bit over the last 10 years.
“There’s more saturation, but it may not show up because the ethnic categories are pretty broad. There’s a large Bosnian contingent, but they’re also white,” she said, adding that respondents can either check off a more general box or write in a more specific ethnicity. International Institute staffers are encouraging immigrants to do the latter. “People frequently get lumped into groups. It all depends on how they respond.”
No online forms just yet
While so many other official processes, including filing taxes and renewing license plates, are available online, the Census has yet to embrace the Internet.
“I believe that [the decision to keep the Census off-line] had to do with 9-11 and uncertainty about internal security,” Johnson said, noting that this theory is his own and not that of the Census Bureau. “Instead of devoting money toward technology when we’re not sure of the security, we put it toward getting the word out.”
By the time the 2020 Census rolls around, however, the Bureau may be ready to take the count to the Internet. Johnson said that the Census Bureau is looking at ways to update the Census and find new ways for Americans to participate.
“The Census hasn’t changed a lot technologically,” Johnson said, noting that the questionnaire form hasn’t changed for several decades. One of few changes this time around took place in the preparatory stage, when Census workers used handheld computers to help verify addresses last spring.
How the Census results are accessed, however, has changed dramatically over the years.
“For years, all the data were published in books, but you had to go to where the books were” to use the public information from the Census, Tranel said. “Now, with all the data available online, it’s accessible to a much broader audience.”
Tranel said that the increase in available data online has also led to several web-based tools, such as one that allows users to create circular area profiles by giving a single geographic point and collecting all the available data within a specified radius. Such fine-tuned tools and increased accessibility allow social agencies, businesses and academic programs to use data for everything from gauging effectiveness of programs and creating marketing strategies to analyzing economic and social trends, Tranel said.
“For the average person at a Cardinals baseball game, I’m not sure what use [the results] would be. But for policy makers,” the data is monumentally important, he said.
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